Written by: Basant El-Farmawy
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on November 3, 2026, the day of the midterm elections, that "inflation has been solved," citing a $10 drop in oil prices the previous day and the U.S. Navy's control over the Strait of Hormuz. His remarks came during a telephone interview with Fox News at a time when Republicans are facing strong headwinds due to voter dissatisfaction with the economic management.
Official data contradicts the statement
Recent data shows that consumer prices jumped 3.5% between June 2025 and June 2026, an increase largely driven by rising gasoline prices resulting from Trump's decision to wage war on Iran last February. Although prices have declined from their annual peak, the national average for regular gasoline recorded $4.15 per gallon on November 3, according to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA).
Record levels on Election Day
Patrick DeHaan, head of oil analysis at price-tracking firm "GasBuddy," noted that gasoline prices recorded a new record level for the highest national average on a midterm election day. In the 2022 cycle, the price per gallon reached approximately $3.80 in the week prior to the elections, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
An elusive promise
During his 2024 campaign, Trump had pledged to reduce gasoline prices to below $2 per gallon, a goal that appears currently elusive. At a campaign rally in Georgia on October 24, Trump said that oil and gas companies are making "huge fortunes" from the war on Iran due to the sharp rise in crude oil prices, adding: "I don't care, I'll say it, we are making a massive fortune."
Projections of continued high prices
If current trends continue, with commercial oil shipments to global markets declining, oil prices may remain in the triple digits per barrel. The Energy Information Administration predicted in early October that crude prices would hover around $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter of the year. Federal forecasts indicate the possibility of the average gasoline price declining to $3.60 per gallon next year, but that remains higher than the national average of $2.98 recorded before the Iranian war began on February 28.
