Written by: Fatima Younis
The Indonesian government has set the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) average for September 2026 at $112.81 per barrel. This figure represents a significant jump of $23.38 compared to August 2026, which recorded $89.43 per barrel.
Causes of Global Price Increases
This noticeable rise is attributed to increased geopolitical uncertainty, escalating conflicts in the Middle East, and risks of disruption to global crude oil supplies. These dynamics are affected by escalating military conflicts and diplomatic stagnation, particularly tensions related to the United States and Iran, which increase risks to maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route for global oil trade.
Supply Pressures and Infrastructure
Crude oil exports via vital pipelines witnessed a 28% decrease compared to July 2026. Supply pressures were exacerbated by attacks on energy infrastructure, including the temporary shutdown of the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia, which has a capacity of 7 million barrels per day, as a precautionary measure following a drone attack. Additionally, delays in production quotas by the OPEC+ alliance and ongoing attacks on oil refineries and export terminals in Russia and the Red Sea region contributed to reducing global supply.
Global Price Developments
The rise in the Indonesian Crude Price aligned with the climb in international benchmark prices, as Brent crude rose by $13.94 to reach $102.02 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also rose by $13.24 to reach $95.69 per barrel. The OPEC Reference Basket recorded an increase of $24.29 to reach $110.73 per barrel.
Monitoring National Energy Stability
The Indonesian Crude Price is expected to remain at high levels as October 2026 begins, despite the emergence of expectations that it will decline to a range between $98 and $103 per barrel. The government continues to monitor global oil price developments to ensure national energy resilience and maintain the stability of the energy sector through a transparent formula that ensures the accounting of government revenues and business activities in the upstream oil and gas sector.
