Written by: Basant El-Farmawy
Authorities concerned with meteorology and climate conditions in North America issued their periodic report on medium-range forecasts for temperatures and precipitation, amidst highlighting a comparison of the performance of traditional numerical prediction models and those supported by artificial intelligence technologies in monitoring climatic patterns.
Relative Superiority of AI Models
Skill scores over the past thirty-day period for two-meter temperature forecasts in North America showed a slight and clear superiority of AI models compared to traditional operational models. The evaluated models included prominent systems such as WeatherNext Version 3, AI ensemble prediction models, along with the European model and the Global Forecast System models.
Six- to Ten-Day Temperature Forecasts
Forecasts for the period from October 24 to October 28 indicate warm weather in the central regions of the United States, while temperatures cooler than normal prevail on both coasts. Precautionary forecasts include the likelihood of continued cooler temperatures on the East Coast, supported by the persistence of snow cover over eastern Quebec.
Precipitation and Long-Range Forecasts
Regarding precipitation, forecasts indicate a dry pattern across the eastern half of the United States, coinciding with the observation of nearby coastal storm disturbances during the initial period. In the longer range extending between November 3 and November 7, the most likely scenarios point to moisture influx coming from the Pacific Ocean to bring atmospheric instability conditions towards the American Southwest and Southeast, with the continued tendency toward warm weather in the eastern regions.
