By: Basant El-Farmawy
Economic forecasts in Egypt are seeing a noticeable improvement during the current fiscal year, according to recent polls of economic experts, as economic growth estimates have been raised while inflation expectations have been lowered. However, there are still concerns related to the volatility of the national currency, especially in light of the ongoing pressures resulting from energy import costs, which remain a key factor in shaping the economic landscape.
Economic Growth Forecasts
Surveys including a group of experts indicated that the average growth forecast for the Egyptian economy during the fiscal year ending in June 2027 reached 4.7%, recording an increase compared to previous estimates of 4.5%. Despite this positive outlook, the country remains vulnerable to global energy price fluctuations, a pivotal factor affecting the balance of payments and the overall fiscal situation. Growth estimates for the current fiscal year generally range between 4.3% and 5.4%, reflecting varying views on the pace of economic recovery amid ongoing regional external crises.
Inflation Rates and National Currency
The annual inflation rate is expected to slow down to an average of 12.3% during the 2026/2027 fiscal year, down from previous, more conservative estimates. Despite the optimism regarding price trends, economists see that the Egyptian pound may face more pressure than previously expected. These expectations are mainly due to energy import costs that burden monetary reserves, in addition to fluctuations in portfolio investments, Suez Canal revenues, tourism, and remittances from expatriates, which are vital sources of foreign currency that remain vulnerable to global and regional variables. According to analysts, exchange rate flexibility and the stability of monetary reserves have helped contain external crises so far, but continued reliance on energy imports remains a core challenge that requires continuous monitoring.
