Written by: Fatima Younes
A recent study revealed that achieving carbon neutrality and rapidly reducing emissions are essential steps to limit long-term changes in the El Niño phenomenon and the tropical Pacific region; however, the heat stored in the deep oceans means those changes may persist for centuries to come.
The study, published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment and supervised by researchers from the University of Melbourne and the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, explained that stopping emissions will not immediately return the tropical Pacific to its pre-industrial state, as ocean temperatures, wind patterns, and rainfall could persist for hundreds of years.
Lead researcher of the study, Aditya Sengupta, pointed out that the atmosphere and the ocean surface can adapt relatively quickly, while the deep ocean absorbs and releases heat over centuries or millennia, giving it a long-term memory of past greenhouse gases. He emphasized the necessity of proceeding hand-in-hand with rapid emission reductions and long-term climate adaptation planning, even after reaching carbon neutrality.
The tropical Pacific significantly influences weather and climate around the world through the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, which fluctuates between El Niño, La Niña, and neutral phases, affecting rainfall, drought, floods, heatwaves, and wildfires in Australia and many other regions.
For his part, the study's co-author, Assistant Professor at the University of Melbourne Andrew King, confirmed that the results reinforce the value of rapid emission reductions, noting that there are clear benefits to limiting emissions as quickly as possible, in a collaborative research project involving multiple Australian universities and the Australian national science agency, CSIRO.
