Written by: Ahmed Abdel Salam
Global oil transport is experiencing escalating instability due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and security risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. These conditions have placed significant pressure on maritime supply chains, causing an unprecedented rise in shipping costs. The cost of transporting two million barrels of oil from the United States to China has reached approximately 80 million dollars, which equates to 40 dollars per barrel for transport costs alone.
Logistical challenges and direct impacts
Bilgehan Engin, Chairman of the International Forwarding and Logistics Service Providers Association (UTİKAD), emphasized that the crisis is not limited to a shortage of tankers, but extends to declining operational efficiency. Factors such as changes in maritime routes, longer waiting periods at ports, and ship-to-ship transfers have all contributed to extending the duration of sea voyages. This time extension reduces the effective capacity of the global fleet, exacerbating the severity of the crisis even with a constant number of available vessels.
Risks threatening the Turkish economy
These developments raise concerns about their impact on the costs of energy imports to Turkey. Engin pointed out that rising war risk insurance premiums, increased fuel costs, and shifting global trade routes are putting upward pressure on final delivery prices. He explained that relying on diverse sources for oil imports is a strategic advantage; however, high shipping costs and the challenges of securing tankers in the Mediterranean and Black Sea basins could significantly affect national supply plans.
Prospects for stability in energy markets
Observers believe that restoring safe navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz will be a pivotal step in calming the markets, as it would contribute to reducing ship waiting times and improving voyage scheduling, which could alleviate pressure on shipping prices. Nevertheless, experts emphasize that a full recovery may take a long time, requiring oil-importing countries, including Turkey, to move toward entering into long-term contracts to ensure the stability of transport costs and reduce exposure to spot shipping price fluctuations imposed by successive geopolitical crises.
