Written by: Suhaib Shams
A recent study conducted by researchers from Harvard University revealed that heavy rainfall poses the greatest climate threat to cocoa crops in tropical regions, exceeding the damage caused by rising temperatures or drought.
Direct Climate Damage
The study, published in the journal PNAS, after analyzing rainfall patterns in Ghana, Indonesia, and Ecuador, showed that heavy rains cause direct physical damage to cocoa flowers and young fruit. These conditions also disrupt insect pollination and contribute to the spread of fungal diseases due to excessive humidity, particularly black pod rot.
Impact of the El Niño Phenomenon
Extreme rainfall events are often linked to El Niño patterns, which cause reduced rainfall in West Africa and Indonesia, while leading to heavy rains in the coastal regions of Ecuador. In the case of Ecuador, heavy rains between February and April significantly impact harvest yields six to eight months later.
Global Production Challenges
The livelihoods of about 6 million smallholder farmers depend on the cocoa crop as a primary source of income. West Africa accounts for about 70% of global production, while Latin America contributes 25%, with Ecuador alone supplying about 12% of global production.
Adaptation and Early Warning Methods
The researchers noted that climate forecasts linked to crops could help farmers adapt through early warning systems. These warnings assist in determining the appropriate times for pruning, sanitation, the use of fungicides, and the preparation of farm drainage systems to avoid crop drowning in low-lying areas.
