By: Basant Al-Farmawi
A recent study warns that the integrated assessment models relied upon by global climate policies may lead humanity down a perilous path by relying on structural assumptions of permanent economic growth, which could obscure more viable transition strategies.
Permanent Growth Assumptions and Their Impact on the Climate
The study, published in the journal Frontiers in Energy Research, indicates that the robust simulation tools supporting emission mitigation scenarios in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are built on a structural assumption that is rarely questioned: the continuation of economic growth until 2100. Researchers Baxter Camana-Williams and Emily Gruber from the University of Notre Dame confirmed that this assumption might hide alternative strategies capable of preventing catastrophic climate change.
Challenges of Green Growth and Decarbonization Technologies
Current models rely on the concept of "green growth," which assumes it is possible to decouple GDP growth from environmental damage through technological improvements. However, empirical data shows that current decoupling rates remain too slow compared to the required reduction in emissions. Given the high demand for energy as the economy grows, the models are forced to assume a massive and unprecedented deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies, which represents a massive technical challenge that could place the planet on a high-warming trajectory if it fails.
Alternative Frameworks and Providing Basic Living Standards
The study suggests a structural reformulation where models focus on optimizing the provision of basic services and the material standards for decent living rather than maximizing purely economic indicators. These standards include food needs, housing space, water, and basic resources at rates that require significantly less energy compared to current consumption. Frameworks such as "degrowth" and "sufficiency" also emerge as alternatives that prioritize social justice and environmental sustainability without relying on the hypothesis of unlimited growth.
